View Full Version : Mets Season Outlook...

01-13-2012, 12:57
...is grim

Now that we have that out of the way, there's some items of intrigue with this team for 2012 for the fans (like myself) who have conceded to a losing season and are more interested in where this team will end up.

1. The future of David Wright, Jason Bay, and Johan Santana:

As a fan, I'd hate to see Reyes and Wright both gone. But looking back, what had they actually accomplished together? Not to put the woes of this team solely on their backs, but its not like they brought multiple championships to Queens. 1 playoff appearance in their entire tenure is not exactly a successful career. Wright is still a talented player but is CLEARLY on the decline. If you look at his numbers earlier in his career, the guy was all-world. When healthy, he still produces, but he's become a different hitter. The potential .340 hitter with power to the opposite field is gone, and a pull happy, strikeout prone semi-slugger has taken is place. Is he still a productive ML player? Of course. Hopefully the fence movement boosts his numbers, he stays healthy, and he regains some confidence in his defense. At least then a contender at the deadline would give adequate return for him in a trade. He must be traded. I repeat...he MUST be traded.

Santana is a similar story. You have to hope he shows 100% health and most of his old form, or he will unfortunately just be another bad long term contract for the Mets. He makes all of his starts before the deadline...TRADE HIM! For him, you take less in return than that of a Wright, as long as the team taking him on is willing to take on the bulk of his salary.

Bay...oh Bay. Is it mental, or has the guy just lost it? The biggest concern with this guy when he was signed was his "questionable" defense. He's proceeded to play a great LF, running through walls in the process. Gotta love that. Gotta hate the $/HR of his contract though. Another guy we have to hope regains form so he can be turned into some organizational pieces.

The worst case scenario would be for all 3 of them to regain form. I say that because that most likely means they will be close enough in the wild card that they make not make deals. The underlying factor in all of this is ownership...because of the financial situation, you have to turn your prime win-now large contracts into prime win-2014 cheap talent. Not trading Reyes last year turned into a nightmare...the draft pick compensation they received wound up being diminished in value because of other Marlins' signings.

2. Who takes the next step?

Will it be Niese, Ike, Parnell, Thole, Duda, Gee? Maybe Ruben Tejada? These guys are not past their development age, and are still capable of improvement. Who will show they are part of the solution? Only time and opportunities will give us that answer. My take - easy answer is Ike. I think he'll be a big time run producer (if anyone is on base in front of him) and will play an above average 1B. Unfortunately the injury last year may take away some of his defensive potential. He's a guy I hope is around for a while.

3. Generation K v2.0

The trio of youngsters, Harvey, Wheeler, and Familia have a ton of talent and upside between them, but can they turn that potential into production in Queens? I'll be following their progress closer than the results of the major league club most likely...they are more important to this franchise than anyone else has been in a LONG time.

Let's not completely write off Mejia either. He seems like the forgotten man in Met land. The advancements in Tommy John surgery have proved that it is no longer a career ending procedure...some guys come back with a better fastball. He never had an elbow straining breaking ball to begin with (or at least not a good one), so he could return as a dominant reliever. He has the natural movement that you just can't teach.

4. What's with Vaughn?

Why is there so little talk of Cory Vaughn? I know he struggled after his promotion last year, but this is a big, athletic kid with a major league pedigree. 22 years old isn't young for A+ level ball, but he isn't exactly over the hill in terms of being a prospect. He reminds me of a slightly less freakish Mike Stanton at 6'3 225 lbs, and obviously he hasn't shown that level of power by any means, but when I picture a prototype for RF in NY, that's the guy I picture. It has been a LONG time since there's been major production from the OF corners in Queens (circa Cliff Floyd?).


All of this changes if the Wilpons do the right thing and sell the team. Nothing against them personally, but its frustrating to know they are making decisions that clearly make the team worse, just to put profit back in their pockets. Put it in terms of a consumer driven business - a good example would be the american car industry. The quality of american cars had been declining DRASTICALLY for a while, and it was showing on their bottom line. Rather than make decisions to improve the product, the cars started being made with cheaper materials and technology than foreign counterparts. Did that fix the problem? Clearly no. It took bankruptcy and corporate restructuring to make that happen.

This is where the Mets are headed with the Wilpons. Do you fix increased losses by cutting costs (payroll)? Not when it affects the quality of the product you are presenting to your loyal consumers. This strategy will just ultimately lead to decreased attendance and a downward spiral of more cost cutting, and worse outcomes for each season. It is time to go guys...you will make plenty of money on the deal, and its what is best for the team. Holding onto the team will only extend the miserable seasons and quest for mediocrity.

01-14-2012, 09:52
I agree with you in trading Wright and Santana. It is going to be difficult to trade Johan while he is hurt obviously, but when he shows he is healthy, try and get something for him. The team needs to be gutted and start fresh. I think the only safe player on the Mets is Ike. Build around him and see what happens.

The Mets need to decide if they are in rebuilding mode or if they want to build a championship. They can't do both.

01-14-2012, 13:20
The mets have to start with re-doing the front office, training staff etc as well. They dont make moves when the opportunity is presented, and when there is multiple opportunities to make one they always make the wrong ones. Everyone knew santana had elbow issues prior to becoming a free agent. Thats just a small piece of bad decisions over the past 4 years or so by the mets. It'll be some time before we see a record over .500 and more than half the stadium filled. I also feel they should see how wright and bay fair with the new fences. For all we know it could have all been a mental thing knowing they have to crush the ball to get it out. And i do also agree Ike is the new foundation of the team (barring he comes back healthy and stays healthy). What can you do hopefully wright bay ike and santana come back healthy and produce. Then us met fans have a reason to show up at the ball park on a weekly basis and root for our team rather than feel like were wasting our time and money at the stadium.

01-14-2012, 14:12
If I remember correctly, isn't the Mets training staff supposed to be the best in the world? Why does it seem that they are always wrong. Ike went from day-to-day, to week-to-week, to 15 Day, to 60 Day, to season. How can a training staff be that bad when it comes to injuries and time tables?

01-15-2012, 20:44
You really cant explain what has happened to this organization over the last several yrs.If i asked you to draw up a worse case scenario it couldnt be much worse than this.And yet still while in rebuilding mode there are still many questions that need to be answered.Whats going on with the Wilpon's finances ? Will Johan ever throw a pitch in my lifetime ? Is Ike Davis who was the 1 thing that got Met fans excited finally healthy ? Can Daniel Murphy play a position anywhere on the field ? What the heck happened to Jason Bay ? Can we get anything for David Wright ? Wait a second,we didnt sign Jose Reyes ? I thought thats why we didnt trade him...My goodness,Im exhausted and I havent come close to being done..We atleast could look at the glass half full and watch our young prized prospects come up ? what ,not too many of those either ?..But the beauty of baseball is if you love the game there is always something to cheer or cry about..It just looks like we are gonna do alot of crying on each others shoulders this yr..Anybody who tells you different is full of it !!!

01-15-2012, 20:55
It was the ballpark's fault !
Now with the fences moved in will we finally see the David Wright that Met fans were so excited about ? What happened to this kid ? He was a .320 hitter, 30+ bombs, and 25 steals.I mean this was once a kid that Bill James said if he had 1 player to pick to start a team it would be DAVID WRIGHT ! He was a top 3 fantasy pick because he was such a great all around player..On top of that his defense has gotten worse every yr seemingly..And could u imagine that there would come a day where Met fans were worried about what his trade value would be ? he was labeled UNTOUCHABLE ! As a Met fan that would be 1 of the top situations that Im focused on this yr.This is not gonna be Reyes all over again,is it ?

01-15-2012, 21:36
Can a Met fan dream ? just for now, anyway.
OK, Im gonna look at the glass half full here and try to figure out a way the Mets can shock all of baseball and actually have a great season. Lets start at !b,Ike Davis comes back healthy as an ox and shows off the power that we saw last yr before the injury...He hits .30+ HR and is a run producing machine in middle of the order.Daniel Murphy starts right where he left off before getting hurt last yr and hits .320 ,and is actually in contention for the batting title into Sep..Torres makes Alderson look like a genius off the Pagan trade as he has a similar yr to that he had for SF 2 yrs ago. he fills Reyes' shoes as that sparkplug that gets on base with speed..Jason Bay finally snaps out of his Mets swoon that lasted for yrs,he offers Ike Davis some much needed protection in the lineup and finally finds that power stroke that he once showed.He even shows some suprising speed on the basepaths as Collins lets him run a bit now that he's healthy..Ruben Tejada shows some gold glove at ss making 1 sparkling play after another..Duda is the biggest suprise of em all as he hits some clutch moonshot HRs and automatically becomes a fan fav as fans start chanting "DUDA.DUDA "..but best of them all is David Wright in the 3 slot ,figures out it was all a mental issue regarding the fences and has a MVP caliber yr, .335 35 HR 110 RBI 27 SB, yeah.Im gettin excited just talking about it.Alderson cant trade em cause team is in contention and Met fans would go bonkers..Pitching staff is not lights out but solid,get the job done..They show alot of grit,the will to win and manager Terry Collins loves that about them.And the bullpen that was patched together with other team"s leftovers but provided depth, have career yrs..Francisco did show some talent in the past you know..Manager Terry Collins is up for manager of the yr.The Mets are the talk of baseball..Beautiful Citi field is packed & electric..Now yes,thats alot that needs to go right for it to work but it does happen in sports,baseball..Why cant it happen for the Mets ? Why cant it happen,just once..Thats the beauty of baseball,everybody is hopeful and has a chance come Opening Day...Met fans, dont forget how to dream !

01-16-2012, 18:20
It's good to see a Met fan that wants to trade Wright. As soon as he gets hot I would get him out!

01-16-2012, 20:37
Just to touch on a few of the responses. The Mets front office is currently constituted with some of the best minds in baseball, but their hands are tied because of the finances. If Sandy knew he needed to knock the payroll down as much as he did, he would have surely taken the top offer for Reyes because it would be IMPOSSIBLE to sign him. I think the talk about the desire to resign him was a PR stunt now gone horribly wrong, because they never had that desire and now the draft pick compensation for him is diminished because of the Heath Bell signing.

Baseball Jesus...that's a serious pipe dream, but I agree it CAN happen in any sport. But what is the likelihood of all of that happening? David Wright is not a .320 hitter anymore because he strikes out way too much. He used to be a guy who was a LOCK to go 0-2, then work the pitcher and either draw a walk or smoke a ball to the RCF gap. He's just not that guy anymore, but if he's at .295/.370/.500 with 15 HR and 50 RBI at the AS break, sell him to the highest bidder.

I say this because a team in a state of flux THIS BAD can no longer "hope" for a whole bunch of unlikely scenarios to occur. Even if that did happen, it would NEVER get repeated 2 years in a row, and it will just delay the rebuilding process even further. The decisions for the team need to be based upon reality and probability. The reality is that Jason Bay has been a terrible signing for his production, and if you can dump some of his salary in a trade, you do it. Johan will never be a factor for a championship Mets team...just bad timing of when he signed frankly. David Wright is a fan favorite, one of my favorites, but putting that aside, he is not the same player he used to be, and at his age that is a bad sign. For the good of the franchise, the future of the Mets, if he rebounds big, he has to be moved.

All of this changes, of course, if the Wilpons sell the team and the finances are replenished. Its scary to think what Sandy "Moneyball" Alderson could do if actually given some money to spend along with the draft and player development. SCARY!

The Boss
01-16-2012, 21:12
The mets have to start with re-doing the front office, Huuuuh?? Didnt they just do that? Geez

01-20-2012, 23:49
Have you guys ever heard of the enter key? Stop writing all your text in giant blocks

01-21-2012, 22:19
Have you guys ever heard of the enter key? Stop writing all your text in giant blocks


01-26-2012, 21:58
With the 40 man roster finalized for all intents and purposes, I wanted to breakdown the 2012 New York Mets Starting Pitching options.

Starting Pitchers:

Johan Santana: I am cautiously optimistic about what Johan has in store for the 2012 season. As we all know, Johan is coming back from major shoulder surgery that kept him out of the rotation for the entire 2011 season. The question that every Mets fan has on their mind is whether Johan has the velocity and the movement that he had previously. Johan relies heavily on locating his fastball, getting hard bite on his slider, and getting late downward movement out of his change-up. Johanís best pitch is that change-up that he loves to throw deep in the count that drops off the table late. He can be an effective pitcher without tons of velocity as long as he can spot his fastball. It will be interesting to see what his pitches look like in Spring Training.

Jon Niese: I expect Niese to have a very good season this year. Over the course of two months last year, Niese looked brilliant. In the month of May, Niese went 3-1 with a 2.97 ERA and in June he went 3-1 with a 3.16 ERA. Over the course of those 10 starts, Niese had a combined 2.93 ERA with notable wins over the Phillies, Braves, Brewers, and Rangers. The only home game out of those wins was against the Phillies. If he can put together a more consistent string of games like he did last year in May and June then Mets fans could be in for a treat. I love the cutter that he learned, which was so effective for him at times against right handers last year. One thing to pay attention to with Niese is the fact that he could be dealt at some point this year. His name has been involved with several trade rumors during the winter.

R.A. Dickey: Dickey had another great season for the Mets last year. During the span of June-September (21 Starts), Dickey lasted 6 innings or more 19 times. He also never gave up more than 4ER during that stretch, which gives him a 3.26ERA over the stretch of those 21 starts. That is an example of how consistent Dickey can be when he gets in a groove. His record last year(8-13) does not reflect how great he actually was last year. I expect more of the same from the hard throwing knuckler this season. I just hope the Mets score more runs for him this year. The Mets could string together some wins if Johan, Niese, and Dickey are throwing well at the top of the rotation.

Dillon Gee: Gee was quite a pleasant surprise for Mets early in the year last year. He won 7 games before he received his first loss and he was 10-3 going into August. He has a five-pitch arsenal with his change-up being the most effective of the five. Hitters seemed to figure out Gee as the season went on and Gee seemed to get a bit of a tired arm due to the amount of innings that he threw in his first full season in the major leagues. I think Gee can be an extremely effective back of the rotation pitcher, who could surprise some people again this year. He is very young and I expect him to progress further in his second full season in the majors.

Mike Pelfrey: Where do I start with The Big Pelf? I can remember Terry Collins talking about how Pelfrey was going to have to be the guy for the Mets to lean on this year without Santana. Clearly, that did not work out the way the Mets wanted it to. He has shown that he is a very inconsistent pitcher, who you just never know what you are going to get out of him. For example: he went out and gave up 7 runs to the Pirates over 5 innings then 3 starts later he went out and pitched a complete game 5-hitter against the Angels. It makes you scratch your head. He needs to choose a repertoire of pitches and stick to it. Every year he seems to rely on a different pitch to get him out of jams. Consistency is clearly the key for Mike Pelfrey as he enters into the 2012 season. He typically stays healthy and can eat a lot of innings, which will help the Mets at the back end of the rotation.


Some of the other possibilities that the Mets have for starters include Chris Young, Matt Harvey, Jeurys Familia, Miguel Batista, Zach Wheeler, and Jenrry Mejia.

Chris Young: There are many rumors that are saying that the Mets will likely bring Young back on a one year, minor-league deal. Young cannot seem to stay healthy for an extended period of time, but he was effective in the short period of time that he pitched last year. This would be a typical low-risk, high-reward move for the Mets.

Matt Harvey: Many people believe that Harvey will eventually get a call-up to the big show this year. He progressed in the minors up to AA Binghamton. I donít expect him to get a lot of starts at the major league level, but I do think that at some point later this season we will see the widely anticipated major league debut of Matt Harvey.

Jeurys Familia: Familia also advanced to AA Binghamton last year with the Mets. I expect him to also come up and make a few starts at the major league level at some point during the 2012 season. Over the course of the 2011 season he had a combined 2.90 ERA between AA and A+.

Miguel Batista: The Mets brought in Batista at the end of the season to make 4 starts, in which he pitched very well. They brought him back on a minor-league deal this year and he should be down in the minors ready to go as an insurance policy in case they need a spot start or if someone gets hurt.

Zach Wheeler: Wheeler is still about a year away from making his major league debut based on what the Mets are saying. I believe that they do not want to rush him and put him in over his head. I think that the best decision for him is to keep him down in the minors for this season and then discuss possibly calling him up at some point next year for a few starts. His development and health is too important to the Mets organization.

Jenrry Mejia: Mejia is still recovering from Tommy John Surgery that he underwent last year. His timetable to return is still cloudy. Hopefully, the Mets will not rush him in his recovery and let him fully heal until he gets back on the mound.

It is possible that the Mets could make a minor deal for a pitcher in case someone gets hurt. They are also monitoring minor free agents, like Jeff Francis, who would be a low risk, high reward signing.

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